Varun
Ammanagi.

I don't know who will win or lose the AI race, but it's not going to be OpenAI. Claude could, Gemini might, or maybe some new player. But not OpenAI.

Main reason: OpenAI is at a huge disadvantage. Having the first mover advantage is the worst thing that could have happened to it.

There are so many freaking users using their chatbot every day — for free! This, in theory, shouldn't have been a problem because in the LLM world, more users = more training data = better model, right?

But think about it for a second. What sort of data are they getting? Most of it is just redundant. A company can only extract so many insights from its users' engagement; beyond that, it's just unnecessary data.

Whereas with Claude, the average user doesn't even know about Claude. But anyone even slightly enthusiastic about the AI world used it. This not only reduces their burn rate but also gives them better quality data to work with.

Gemini — well, it can go as long as Google wants it to. It is funded by a behemoth sitting on a ton of cash. To give some context, OpenAI's yearly burn of $10B is roughly 10% of Google's annual profits.

We have all heard the phrase "higher the risk, higher the returns" at least once. But is it really true?

When someone says "I am taking a risk," what they mean is the probability of something happening is low or uncertain. Uncertainty comes from not knowing completely. The more you analyze, the higher your probability of being right.

Say I ask you to invest in Devyani Ltd., a newly incorporated company about to start designing its product. You probably wouldn't — you don't know the management, the product, the market fit. Risk is high because you're uncertain.

Now say I ask you to invest in Trent Ltd., co-founded by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, with Elon Musk and Tim Cook as Product Heads, Jeff Bezos as CEO, Mukesh Ambani as CFO, and Ratan Tata as MD. You don't know the product either — but you know the people. Your certainty is higher. Risk is lower.

Conclusion: risk comes from not having complete information. The more you know about what you're getting into, the less risk you're actually taking. Our goal shouldn't be to run from risk but to reduce it by doing the work.

Invest your time before you invest your money.

"Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing." — Warren Buffett